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Ξανα-απέτυχε ο Σοσιαλισμός!
« on: May 20, 2016, 11:32:26 am »
Κοινή θέση των σοσιαλιστών από την άκρα "δεξιά" μέχρι την άκρα αριστερά είναι το τύπωμα χρήματος. Έτσι, λένε στον λαό τον οποίο περνάνε για βλάκα, θα έρθει η ...ανάπτυξη, ενώ είναι πασιφανές ότι εκείνο το οποίο θέλουν είναι να επιβάλλουν μια έμμεση φορολογία στους πολίτες. Να τυπώσει χρήμα το Κράτος, το οποίο θα το προμηθευτεί με προνομιακούς όρους η άρχουσα τάξη, ενώ παράλληλα οι αποταμιεύσεις του λαού θα υποτιμηθούν σε σημείο να γίνουν καπνός και όλοι να εξαρτώνται από το ζεστό χρήμα της παρασιτικής άρχουσας τάξης.

Ο κομμουνιστική Βενεζουέλα αποτελεί σύγχρονο παράδειγμα αποτυχίας αυτού του ληστρικού μοντέλου (υπ)ανάπτυξης και μπορεί ο καθένας να διαπιστώσει ιδίοις όμασι τα αποτελέσματα των πολιτικών των εχθρών του σκληρού χρήματος, της αναδιανομής, των κρατικοποιήσεων και του αντικαπιταλισμού.

Will Venezuela Be Forced to Embrace the Dollar?

The country of Venezuela is dangerously approaching hyperinflation. At 2015’s year-end, official figures had yearly inflation at or above 180 percent (some private sector sources estimated it at 330 percent). The technical definition of hyperinflation is when inflation is at 50 percent or more per month, meaning that Venezuela is not yet at this point, but does seem to be approaching at an accelerated pace. The South American country finds itself with inflation rates at their worst in its history (1996 saw 103 percent yearly inflation) and the highest in the world (Ukraine is second with 50 percent yearly inflation).
Venezuelen official inflation rate

Source: NSI Bolivarian Republic of Venezuela

The main effects of hyperinflation are beginning to be felt. In every case in history where there has been hyperinflation, the main cause has been fiscal imbalance, and the case in Venezuela is no different. When there is a surge in the deficit, the same applies for inflation (graph 2).
Budget deficit and inflation

Source: Central Bank of Venezuela; International Monetary Fund

Normally, moderate inflation follows the path of the deficit with a relatively large delay, because economic agents are unable to anticipate deficit values and monetization with precision. On the other hand, in times of hyperinflation, inflation anticipates the deficit (economic agents overestimate new monetization policies and there is a universal tendency to evade local currency). In Venezuela, we can see that since 2013 (graph 3) inflation has increased at a faster rate than the deficit, and for this reason we can consider the country in a state of hyperinflation as of that date.
Rates of change inflation and budget deficit

Source: Self-prepared using data from: Venezuela Central Bank; International Monetary Fund

This creates a big problem for the government of Venezuela due to the fact that real tax revenues decrease (just as in all cases of hyperinflation). During the time between receipt of tax revenues and actually putting these taxes to use, inflation eats up the real value providing the government with less real revenue.

An inverse relationship exists between inflation in Venezuela and crude oil prices (graph 4). This relationship is such that inflation increases rapidly when the main source of government revenue (revenue from oil) decreases due to the fact that the government does very little to reduce costs when decreases in revenues are experienced (thus deficits are monetized and amounts of currency rise at aggressive rates).
Oil price and inflation

Source: NSI Bolivarian Republic of Venezuela; OPEC

One of the most surprising and paradoxical aspects of hyperinflations is the shortage of money. When rises in prices grow out of control (which is starting to be the case in Venezuela), the amount of new money created is not enough to suffice for these increases in prices. In other words, the real money supply drops (nominal money supply / price levels).

Money supply growth

The last phase in all cases of hyperinflation is currency stabilization. This phase is inevitable whether it be because of changes introduced by the government or due to complete rejection of local currency by the population. In order for such a monetary reform to be successful, it is essential that the government first eliminate the main cause of the inflation (the budget deficit). Unfortunately, it does not seem as though the Venezuelan government has any plans to decrease spending, nor does it appear that revenue from oil will be recovering any time soon, meaning that any attempts at currency stabilization will surely fail (just as it did the last time when the bolivar fuerte was introduced in 2008).

In light of this situation, it seems that Theirs’ Law is inevitable. Thiers’ Law is the reverse of Gresham’s Law. Good money eventually takes bad money out of circulation as the latter becomes abandoned. Currently, the US dollar serves as a store of value for Venezuelans, and to a lesser extent, the unit of account. The only function that the bolivar currently serves is as a medium of payments, which is only a matter of time before this function is abandoned, as well (in fact, alternatives to using local currency have begun to spring up in the form of bartering and trade). Seeing that the US dollar is already serving various functions that replace the Venezuelan currency, it is all too possible that it becomes the undesired successor to the bolivar.

Most certainly, Venezuela finds itself in hyperinflation for which there exist only two solutions; drastically reduce spending and the deficit and execute monetary reform or lose the bolivar and adopt the dollar. Both are equally unpopular for the government of Venezuela, but the difference is that if the first option (the deficit) goes unattended, the second (dollarization) is inevitable. Then, one of the most anti-US governments in the world will have to accept the US dollar as its only remedy against hyperinflation.

In Venezuela, despite enormous levels of money creation; money shortages are more and more common (graph 5). While the money supply has doubled since last year, real money supply has decreased 30 percent.

This article was translated from the Spanish by Robert Goss and was first published by Universidad Francisco Marroquin.

These 5 Facts Explain Why Venezuela Could Be on the Brink of Collapse

    Ian Bremmer @ianbremmer

May 19, 2016
Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro News Conference As The Country Moves To Slash Imports To 12-year Low
Bloomberg—Bloomberg via Getty Images Nicolas Maduro, Venezuela's president, pauses while speaking during a news conference in Caracas, Venezuela, on Tuesday, May 17, 2016. Earlier this month, Venezuela's opposition said it had cleared the first hurdle in a drive to remove Maduro from office. The opposition says almost 2 million people signed a petition calling for a recall process to start, far outstripping the 200,000 required by law. Photographer: Carlos Becerra/Bloomberg via Getty Images
Even the beer is running out in Venezuela

The situation in Venezuela is going from bad to worse. This week, Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro repeated his threat to seize closed factories and nationalize them, a bold move considering his popularity numbers are in the tank and the opposition—which won legislative elections late last year—is breathing down his neck. These 5 facts explain what you need to know about Venezuela right now.

Read More: Inside the Booming Smuggling Trade Between Venezuela and Colombia

1. Feeling the Pinch

When we last checked in with Venezuela, the country was already being crippled by shortages. The situation has deteriorated further. Water is now rationed by the government, and some residents have been warned that water will be supplied just once every 21 days after the mainland reservoir dries up. Venezuelans have begun stealing water from swimming pools and tanker trucks to get by. Electricity is limited too, with Maduro ordering public offices open just two days a week in a bid to conserve energy. This is in addition to the four-hour power cuts ordered across the country and the rolling blackouts that have become a part of daily life. Basic medicines like aspirin are nowhere to be found, and supermarket shelves are often empty. In April, another devastating blow: the country’s largest private company, Empresas Polar SA, closed its doors. Empresas makes 80 percent of all beer consumed in the country—a tough turn of events at a time when Venezuelans could use a drink.

(Wall Street Journal (a),Los Angeles Times,Wall Street Journal

2. How Venezuela Got Here

As Hemingway would say, Venezuela went bankrupt gradually, then suddenly. For years, the country has been deeply dependent on its vast oil reserves, which account for 96 percent of export earnings and nearly half its federal budget. That was manageable when oil was selling at more than $100 dollars a barrel. Venezuela has budgeted for oil at $40 per barrel for years now, but instead of saving the surplus when prices were higher, much of this emergency oil fund was either spent or stolen. Venezuela would now need oil prices to reach $121 per barrel to balance its budget—instead, they’re hovering around $50. Damage to Venezuela’s economy has been exacerbated by drought. About 65 percent of the country’s electricity is generated by a single hydroelectric dam that’s now in serious trouble.

(Wall Street Journal (a),Bloomberg,Wall Street Journal(b))

Read More: These 5 Facts Explain Why Venezuela Is in Big Trouble—Still

3. Long-term Problems

For decades, corruption has been a constant in Venezuelan politics. It’s the most corrupt country in the Americas, and 9th most corrupt in the world, according to Transparency International. Its murder rate of 90 per 100,000 residents is the second-highest in the world (after El Salvador). Not surprisingly, people are angry. There are an average of 17 demonstrations per day across the country, according to the Venezuelan Observatory for Social Conflict. The current unemployment rate is 17 percent, and the IMF projects it will reach nearly 21 percent next year. The inflation rate is expected to hit 481 percent by year’s end and 1,642 percent by next year, according to the IMF. To put that in perspective, in February a McDonald’s Happy Meal in Caracas cost $146 dollars at the official exchange rate of 6.3 bolivars per dollar.

(Transparency International,Wall Street Journal, Reuters, CNN)

Read More: Baseball’s Venezuelan Talent Pool Dries Up Amid Poverty and Discord

4. Changing of the Guard?

Legislative elections this past December handed control of Venezuela’s parliament to the Democratic Unity coalition, a political grouping of centrist, center-left, and center-right parties. It was the first time in 17 years that “Chavismo,” the unique brand of socialist and populist politics spearheaded by the late president Hugo Chavez and continued by Maduro, his chosen successor, failed to win nationwide elections. Maduro’s approval rating in December was 22 percent; today it’s 15 percent. Some 70 percent of Venezuelans want him removed from office. Populists need popular support, and Maduro’s is running out.

(CNN, Council on Foreign Relations, Los Angeles Times)

5. Race Against the Clock

To that end, the opposition has collected enough signatures to trigger a recall referendum against Maduro. Activists needed 200,000 signatures, one percent of all voters, to kick-start the process. They got 1.85 million. Two weeks ago they submitted their list to the National Electoral Council (CNE) for approval, but the validators are government loyalists and have been dragging their feet.

Why? Timing of the referendum is crucial. According to the Venezuelan constitution, if the president is ousted within the final two years of his term, the presidency passes to the sitting vice-president—in this case, Aristobulo Isturiz, a loyal Chavista. If that should come to pass—January 10, 2017 is the magic date—the opposition fear is that the Chavista movement will simply sacrifice Maduro to protect Chavismo. And short of a popular uprising intense enough to force the government to move more quickly, that’s exactly what will happen. Maduro looks likely to be ousted before his term officially ends; the real question is whether Chavismo will get the boot along with him.


« Last Edit: May 20, 2016, 11:35:20 am by Pinochet88 »

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Κοινή θέση των σοσιαλιστών από την άκρα "δεξιά" μέχρι την άκρα αριστερά είναι το τύπωμα χρήματος.

οχι μονο αυτό, λενε και για κουρεμα. Οπως η ΧΑ που υποστηρίζεις, όπως ο Τραμπ που υποστηρίζεις.

"First of all, you never have to default because you print the money," the presumptive Republican presidential nominee said on CNN.

This is true, but as with trying to get bondholders to take a haircut, it's out of the economic mainstream.

Last Thursday, Trump suggested on CNBC that he would be able to reduce the national debt by persuading creditors to accept a "haircut" on that debt

Εμεις ξερουμε πως δεν ειναι ολοι Αναρχικοι. Μονο αυτοι ειναι οι σωστοι, οι προκαθορισμενοι για την Ουτοπια. Τι σημασια εχουν οι υπολοιποι; Οι υπολοιποι ειναι απλως η ανθρωποτητα. Πρεπει να υπερεχει κανεις της ανθρωποτητας μεσω της ρωμης, μεσω του υψους της ψυχης, μεσω της περιφρονησης.


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Εγώ δεν υποστηρίζω τη Χ.Α. και τον Τραμπ επειδή θα τυπώσουν χρήμα. Αυτά τα καταδικάζω. Εγώ τους υποστηρίζω γιατί θα ρίξουν τους εβραίους στους θαλάμους αερίων να τους κάψουν και θα βάλουν τους μωαμεθανούς και τους σκυλάραπες να δουλεύουν στις φυτείες και θα τους μαστιγώνουν. Μετά θα έρθει ο Πινοσέτ και θα βάλει και τη Χρυσή Αυγή και τον Τραμπ στους θαλάμους και θα τους πετάξει στη θάλασσα και θα απαλλαγεί οριστικά η ανθρωπότητα από τα σκουλήκια και τα μιάσματα.
« Last Edit: May 20, 2016, 08:15:22 pm by Pinochet88 »


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Εγώ τους υποστηρίζω γιατί θα ρίξουν τους εβραίους στους θαλάμους αερίων να τους κάψουν.


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